In a significant diplomatic intervention, US President Donald Trump has called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to cease drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, citing the devastating impact of these attacks on the global diesel market. The appeal, which comes amid surging fuel prices and widening economic pressures, underscores the increasingly complex geopolitical fallout of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Trump’s message to Zelensky was reportedly centered heavily on “diesel, diesel… diesel,” according to a senior official familiar with their recent phone conversation. The US president expressed concern that Ukraine’s persistent targeting of Russian energy infrastructure is exacerbating a global shortage of refined petroleum products, particularly diesel, which is a critical fuel for manufacturing, agriculture, and global logistics.
The Core Issue: Global Diesel Shortages
The global fuel market is currently facing acute pressures, with diesel prices rising steadily worldwide. The situation has been significantly aggravated by ongoing conflicts, notably the war between Iran and a US-Israel coalition, which has disrupted supplies from the Middle East.
While the United States is not fundamentally opposed to Russia losing crude oil revenue, Washington is increasingly concerned about the knock-on effects of reduced Russian refining capacity. Russia has historically been the third-largest producer of refined petroleum products, with a pre-war refining capacity of around 6.5 million barrels per day.
However, Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign has severely curtailed this output. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, following a major drone strike on the Moscow Oil Refinery on September 20, 2026, more than 45% of Russia’s oil refining capacity has been taken offline. This has led to a sharp decline in the production of high-quality gasoline and diesel meeting Euro-5 standards, triggering fuel shortages and export restrictions within Russia.
The resulting drop in Russian diesel exports—coupled with substantial declines in Middle Eastern exports due to regional conflicts—has left the global market starved for supply. In the US, the price of diesel surpassed $6 per gallon earlier this month, creating significant economic headwinds.
Ukraine's Strategic Calculus
For Kyiv, the strikes on Russian refineries are a vital component of its military strategy. Ukraine argues that targeting these facilities both degrades the Russian war machine’s operational capabilities and strikes at the financial heart of the Kremlin’s war effort.
Following the massive September 20 drone attack on the Moscow Oil Refinery—which occurred on the final day of Russian parliamentary elections and reportedly involved hundreds of drones—Zelensky shared footage of the damage. He characterized the targeted facilities as representing “billions of dollars that sustain the war machine”.
Zelensky has framed the situation as a necessary response to Russian aggression, noting that Russia has lost control over its diesel industry due to the war. However, he has also signaled a willingness to negotiate. The Ukrainian president stated that Ukraine's energy sector and critical infrastructure must stop being targets for Russia, suggesting that reciprocal de-escalation is possible.
Diplomatic Next Steps
The issue is expected to be a primary focus when Trump and Zelensky meet on Tuesday, September 22, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Zelensky has described their recent phone conversation as "important" and indicated that the upcoming meeting "could change a lot". He also acknowledged recent visits to Kyiv by US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, noting that they discussed possible de-escalation measures and issues of energy and food security.
For oil markets and global economic analysts, Tuesday’s meeting is a significant headline risk. Traders will be watching closely for any signal from Kyiv regarding a change in its strike policy. However, as of now, neither the US nor the Ukrainian government has publicly confirmed an agreement to alter the targeting strategy.
Outlook and Impact
The pressure on Ukraine to halt its refinery strikes highlights the delicate balance the US must strike between supporting its ally and managing global economic stability. If Ukraine agrees to curb its attacks, it could ease some upside risk to global product supply. However, if the strikes continue, the risk premium on diesel will likely remain in place, potentially sustaining elevated prices through the upcoming winter heating season.
The situation also underscores the vulnerability of global energy markets to asymmetric warfare. The success of Ukraine's drone campaign demonstrates that even heavily defended, critical infrastructure deep within Russian territory is not immune to attack, fundamentally altering the strategic calculus for both energy security and military conflict.
